Trump’s speech is expected to take a triumphal tone, but that risks coming across at odds with Americans’ worries about rising gas prices and potentially reignited inflation. The oil industry has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened soon, supply disruptions will spread, raising price further.

Further rises in energy prices could make Trump’s precarious political position significantly worse, much as it did for one-term President Jimmy Carter in the 1970s.

“The oil shock of the ’70s was planted in the maybe subterranean part of our brains,” said Jay Hakes, a presidential historian who led the U.S. Energy Information Administration in the 1990s during the Clinton administration. The Iran war is shaping up to be the same kind of jolt to the system, he said.

Read the full analysis here.

—Matt Peterson

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill during the fifth week of the war.

No tankers transited the strait on Tuesday, though two bulk carriers did make the voyage, according to data from Lloyd’s List. Three refined product tankers transited Monday among six other vessels. Three oil tankers made the trip on Sunday with four other commercial ships.

Iran has managed to sharply reduce traffic by attacking vessels. Trump said this morning he will not agree to a ceasefire unless the Islamic Republic reopens the vital sea route.

The strait connects the Persian Gulf to world markets. About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the narrow waterway before the war.

— Spencer Kimball

Trump earlier in the day told attendees at a White House Easter lunch that ‘I’m going to tell everybody how great I am” during his speech to the nation, according to a video that the White House appeared to upload and then make private.

The video, however, continues to circulate online, including one broadcast of the event from Forbes.

“And tonight I’m making a little speech at 9:00 and basically … I’m going to tell everybody how great I am,” Trump said at the lunch, which was closed to the media.

Trump also said “the war’s going to be over in three days,” during an aside about the lack of support from the U.K. and other NATO allies.

“We’re sort of pretty much winding that up,” Trump said of the war. “Have to take a few more hits.”

— Garrett Downs

Prediction market participants are betting millions on what Trump will or won’t say.

A Kalshi market worth more than $6.3 million has 93% odds that Trump will say “epic fury,” the name for the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, as of around 7:30 p.m. ET.

Bettors put a 78% probability on Trump saying “oil,” while assigning a 51% likelihood to him mentioning “gas” or “gasoline.”

A similar market on Polymarket with total volume above $1.25 million assigned a 54% chance to Trump mentioning a “ceasefire” or “peace deal.”

The market also suggested 6% odds that Trump will say “six seven,” an apparent reference to the popular internet meme.

— Alex Harring

Oil prices fell ahead of Trump’s address, but remain at their highest levels since 2022 and are unlikely to return to pre-war prices anytime soon.

U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent are hovering around $100 per barrel. Brent will likely remain at that level for the rest of the year due to the massive supply disruption triggered by the war, according to a Bank of America forecast.

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, have surged more than 30% to top $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Diesel prices are above $5 per gallon, a major threat to the economy as the fuel is used by trucks and trains to transport all the goods families and businesses need.

— Spencer Kimball

Iran is seeking a guaranteed ceasefire to end the war permanently, Reuters reported.

According to a senior Iranian source cited by Reuters, intermediaries contacted Iran on Tuesday.

Trump said on social media on Wednesday that Iran had asked for a ceasefire and that the U.S. would consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Trump said on Tuesday that the war in Iran could end in “weeks.”

—Justin Papp

Paramount’s CBS will split a special two-hour “Survivor” episode into two parts on Wednesday, with Trump’s address expected to interrupt the show at 9 p.m. ET.

The long-running reality show is expected to feature a “dreaded blood moon” that “leads to a historic tribal council,” but viewers will be interrupted for roughly 20 minutes, according to a CBS programming advisory.

“Survivor” will return after the president’s speech, and will be followed by an episode of “AMERICA’S CULINARY CUP,” according to the programming note.

— Garrett Downs

Wall Street extended its relief rally with Trump’s address looming.

The S&P 500 jumped 3.7% over the last two sessions, its biggest two-day increase since May 2025. The Magnificent Seven, a group of megacap technology stocks, has collectively added more than $1 trillion in market cap during that period.

To be sure, the market still has ground to regain after surging oil prices dragged on equities. The S&P 500 dropped more than 5% in March, marking its steepest monthly decline in a year. The broad index is down about 4% year to date.

— Alex Harring, Nick Wells

The war has given rise to new forms of propaganda, as both the U.S. and Iran wield social media and pop-culture-steeped memes in the fight for messaging dominance.

Iran’s prime target is Trump, with state media and top officials alike relentlessly mocking and amplifying criticisms of the U.S. leader.

Among the most striking examples: a series of seemingly AI-generated videos depicting Iranian military successes against the U.S. and Israel in a Lego-esque cartoon art style.

The meme war isn’t one-sided: Official U.S. government accounts have shared videos splicing clips from sports, movies and video games into real footage of military strikes since the early days of the war.

Despite criticism, the Trump administration has no intention of changing its strategy. Case in point: Ahead of Trump’s address, White House spokesman Kaelan Dorr posted an AI-generated image featuring a character similar to Gru from the “Despicable Me” films wearing a red MAGA hat, waving a U.S. flag and riding a missile plastered with pro-Trump stickers.

Read the full story here.

— Kevin Breuninger

Trump has long mused about the U.S. leaving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and he is expected to reiterate his frustrations with the Western military bloc during his address on Wednesday.

But Trump may be blocked from unilaterally jettisoning the U.S. from NATO thanks to a 2023 bill authored in part by his own Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, then a Republican senator from Florida.

Tucked into the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2024 was a provision blocking the U.S. president from unilaterally exiting NATO, requiring a two-thirds majority in the Senate or an act of Congress for any move to leave the alliance. Rubio led the bill with Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., and it was signed into law in December 2023.

That means any move by Trump to leave NATO would be in immediate legal peril. The alliance was founded in 1949, following World War II.

“The Senate should maintain oversight on whether or not our nation withdraws from NATO. We must ensure we are protecting our national interests and protecting the security of our democratic allies,” Rubio said at the time the bill passed.

Rubio, in a recent interview with Al Jazeera, struck a notably harsher tone toward the alliance.

“If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States. So all of that is going to have to be reexamined,” he said.

— Garrett Downs

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a letter Wednesday addressed to the American people, defended his country’s actions in the war against the U.S. and Israel as “legitimate self-defense” while slamming the “delusions of a foreign aggressor.”

“The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries,” Pezeshkian said in the letter, published by Iranian state media ahead of a scheduled address by President Donald Trump.

The leader framed the U.S. for unjust aggression and intervention against Iran spanning decades and argued the current war is damaging America’s “global standing.”

He also accused the U.S. of being a “proxy for Israel” and encouraged Americans to question their government’s claims about Iran.

— Kevin Breuninger