Oil prices climbed about 5% on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump said he did not want to extend a soon-to-expire ceasefire in the Iran war and that the US military was “raring to go” if negotiations do not succeed.
Brent futures rose $4.30, or 4.5%, to $99.78 a barrel at 1:13pm EDT (1713 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate CLc1 crude rose $4.75, or 5.3%, to $94.36.
Pakistan said there was still no confirmation that Iran would attend last-ditch peace talks with the United States, after US forces boarded a huge Iranian oil tanker at sea with just a day left to the ceasefire.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, remained broadly halted on Tuesday with only three ships passing the waterway in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed.
The European Union will provide guidance to airlines on how to handle issues such as airport slots, passenger rights and public service obligations in the event of jet fuel shortages because of the Iran war, the bloc’s transport chief said.
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said supplies of jet fuel are not in danger as refineries adapt to increased demand, but added the government is monitoring the situation.
Russian supplies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, however, said the Druzhba oil pipeline pumping Russian oil to Europe, is ready to resume operations, signalling that Ukraine now expects a 90 billion euro aid package to be unblocked. But three industry sources said Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1.
Elsewhere in Russia, Ukrainian drones struck an oil-pumping and dispatch facility in Russia’s Samara region overnight.
In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, investor morale declined to its lowest level in more than three years in April as businesses started to feel the economic consequences of the Iran war far beyond price increases, the ZEW economic research institute said.
In the United States, retail sales increased more than expected in March as the war in Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending elsewhere.
Trump’s Federal Reserve chief nominee Kevin Warsh called for “regime change” at the US central bank, including a new approach for controlling inflation and a communications overhaul that may discourage his colleagues from saying too much about the direction of monetary policy.
Trump told CNBC that he would be disappointed if Warsh did not cut interest rates right away once he took office after being approved by the Senate.
Analysts worry that involving more politics in interest rate decisions could reduce the Fed’s ability to control inflation. Trump wants the Fed to cut rates, which would reduce consumer costs and could boost economic growth and demand for oil.
US oil inventories
Those crude price increases came as the market waited for direction from weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group later on Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Analysts projected that energy firms pulled 1.8 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended April 17.
If correct, that would be the first time energy firms pulled crude out of storage for two weeks in a row since February, and compares with an increase of 0.2 million barrels in the same week last year and a decline of 3.7 million barrels over the past five years (2021-2025).
