There’s an old adage in baseball that “you can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose it” — and a handful of MLB teams are putting that theory to the test this month.
The Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets have gotten many of the headlines for their rough starts after combining for a 40-56 record and a pair of manager firings, with the other skipper still on the hot seat. But they are not the only teams that have stumbled out of the gate after entering the season with high expectations.
How worried should fans be about the damage a cold April has done to their team’s chances of playing into October? We assigned our MLB experts one struggling team and asked them to rate that club’s hopes for the rest of the season on a panic meter from 1 (relax, everything will be just fine) to 5 (it’s past time to hit the panic button).
Panic-meter score: 1.5
What has gone wrong: The offense was scuffling to begin the season, hitting .184 as the Mariners started 4-9. The team’s three best hitters all struggled: Cal Raleigh hit .145 with two home runs his first 18 games, Julio Rodriguez homered once in the first 27 games, and Josh Naylor hit .118 through 19 games. Meanwhile, the rotation has been OK, but hardly great (18th in strikeout rate and bottom 10 in home runs allowed). As a staff, the Mariners have allowed the second-highest hard-hit rate in the majors.
Can they fix it? A weekend sweep in St. Louis has the Mariners perhaps back on the right track (although Bryan Woo allowed four home runs in one of the wins). Raleigh hit four home runs in six games last week, and Naylor hit .480 in seven games after that .118 start.
There is some panic about Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert, who have both been hit hard early on, but the Mariners’ lineup and rotation should play out over 162 — and it helps that the AL West looks mediocre so far. — David Schoenfield
Panic-meter score: 2
What has gone wrong: The offense has gotten off to a sluggish start, but for what should be a fixable reason. The standout number has been rock-bottom performance — literally, as in a 30th-ranked OPS — with runners in scoring position. The bullpen has also been subpar and the future there is a little more murky to see. K.C.’s bullpen ERA ranks 29th and that has been a big problem.
Can they fix it?: The hitters, sure. The Royals projected to have an above-average attack and the team OPS already is roughly in the middle of the pack. Give it time and the RISP number should move toward the overall talent of the hitters. The bullpen is a real concern as there just aren’t any relievers who offer a high degree of certainty on any given night. Some outside help might be in order for the bullpen. For the Royals, and all teams seeking high-leverage assistance, keep an eye on the reanimated version of Antonio Senzatela in Colorado.
At the bottom line, the core tenets of Kansas City’s roster construction have held up — starting pitching, team defense, Bobby Witt Jr. — so with regression elsewhere, the Royals can make progress. And let’s not forget that the bar for entry in the AL playoff race is very low. No reason to freak out, just yet. — Bradford Doolittle
Panic-meter score: 3
What has gone wrong: The Blue Jays surged through last postseason with a dynamic offense with a knack for both putting the ball in play and hitting it hard. In the early part of this year, though, that hasn’t really shown up. The Blue Jays still avoid strikeouts with the best of them, but they’re not drawing walks and they’re also not slugging, an awful combination. Relatedly, they’re also very injured — in their lineup, but also throughout their rotation.
Can they fix it? They can — by getting healthier. The Blue Jays welcomed Trey Yesavage back off the injured list on Tuesday, and several other reinforcements could be on the horizon. Before the end of May, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger should all rejoin the lineup. Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios and, perhaps, Shane Bieber are all expected to return to the rotation by then, too. Perhaps in the meantime someone can step up in the ninth inning. — Alden Gonzalez
Philadelphia Phillies
Panic-meter score: 3.5
What has gone wrong: Their starting staff has the highest ERA in baseball. What has happened to Aaron Nola and Jesus Luzardo? They’re not the only culprits — just the highest-paid ones. And it’s not like their offense has picked up the slack. Alec Bohm looks like a shell of himself, and the Phillies aren’t getting much from anyone outside of their biggest stars offensively.
Can they fix it? They can, but it remains to be seen if they will. On Tuesday, the Phillies addressed their slow start by firing manager Rob Thomson and replacing him with interim skipper Don Mattingly.
The way back to respectability and contention is through the pitching staff. Zack Wheeler’s return is off to a good start while there has to be some positive regression for others — starting with Luzardo. Plus, Jhoan Duran’s return should settle down the pen. Do we really think the Phillies won’t pass at least 5-6 teams in front of them in the NL at some point? — Jesse Rogers
Panic-meter score: 4
What has gone wrong: They have allowed the most runs in Major League Baseball. Their defensive range is straight-up bad. When you cannot throw the ball or catch the ball, you tend to give up more runs than you score, even with a good offense.
Can they fix it? No. Even if Hunter Brown, Josh Hader and Cristian Javier return from arm injuries, it won’t be until late May at earliest, and by then the Astros will have suffered through two months of rough pitching. It’s one thing to dig a hole. It’s another to bury yourself. — Jeff Passan
New York Mets
Panic-meter score: 4
What has gone wrong: The offense is the worst in the majors. The proof is evident in old-school statistics and new-age metrics. The Mets rank 30th — that’s last — in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They’re last in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. Juan Soto, who missed nearly three weeks with a calf injury, and Francisco Alvarez are the only healthy regulars with an OPS+ above 100 — that’s average. Franciso Lindor posted a 92 OPS+ before landing on the injured list. There are holes in the starting rotation and closer Devin Williams has struggled recently, but the offense’s ineptitude has fueled the disaster.
Can they fix it? Sure. Bo Bichette is not a .237 hitter. Carson Benge has looked much better lately. Luis Robert Jr. possesses every tool in the kit to succeed when healthy. But not having Lindor is a huge blow. The lineup has looked thin without him and Soto both in there, which has been rare this season.
Will Brett Baty and/or Mark Vientos prove themselves to be real big-league contributors? Does Marcus Semien have more in the tank? Is there enough power in this position player group?
The Mets can’t rely solely on Soto to propel the offense. Teams have pitched around him since he has returned from the injured list, daring someone else to beat them. The success rate has been too high for the Mets to win consistently. — Jorge Castillo
Boston Red Sox
Panic-meter score: 5
What has gone wrong: Under normal circumstances, I would’ve placed the panic meter at 3, given the small sample size of games. But Craig Breslow, the Red Sox head of baseball operations, must have it at a 5 because he just fired someone considered one of the best managers in baseball after 27 games in March and April.
The offense has been poor, powerless, with the team ranked in the bottom 10 of just about every major offensive category.
Can they fix it? Tricky question, and the short answer is: maybe. Roman Anthony will be better, Caleb Durbin is bound to produce more. But will this group generate significantly more homers? Doubtful, unless they change the composition of the roster. Breslow’s bet is on pitching. — Buster Olney
