Climate Science Advances in Linking Extreme Weather to Warming

A new report highlights progress in extreme event attribution while noting gaps in predicting localized severe storms and global impacts.

• By Jesse Jacobs
• August 12, 2026

Scientists have made major strides over the past decade in determining whether human-caused climate change played a role in specific extreme weather events, according to a report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

The field, known as extreme event attribution, uses observational datasets, statistical methods and computer models to compare real-world weather against simulations of a world without human greenhouse gas emissions.

Confidence in attribution findings varies depending on the type of weather event. Researchers express the highest confidence when analyzing extreme heat, extreme cold and large-scale heavy rainfall, which are directly driven by a warming atmosphere.

Confidence remains lowest for localized phenomena, such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. These storms rely on small-scale atmospheric processes that global climate models struggle to replicate, alongside regions with limited historical observational records.

The report notes that attribution research is expanding into impact attribution, which measures how climate change influences downstream consequences such as economic damages and public health outcomes.

To improve accuracy, the report recommends developing higher-resolution global models, establishing standardized research guidelines, conducting routine peer reviews of rapid attribution studies and expanding data collection in under-resourced regions across the Global South.