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The Impact of “Hot Models” on a CMIP6 Ensemble Used by Climate Service Providers in Canada: Do Global Constraints Lead to Appreciable Differences in Regional Projections?


Fig. 12.

Correlation matrix summarizing the level of correspondence in differences between constrained and unconstrained projections of ETCCDI extreme indices across five weighting schemes (ECSall, TCRlikely, and three variants of ECS10) applied to the CanDCS-U6 ensemble. Correlation coefficients are calculated between standardized differences for all combinations of region, index, percentile, SSP experiment, and time period. The ECS10 variants differ primarily in terms of which high ECS model is included in the subset of 10 models (CanESM5, HadGEM3-CG31-LL, or UKESM1-0-LL).

Citation: Journal of Climate 37, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0459.1



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