Deutsche Bank believes that there’s more room for Tesla ‘s first-quarter deliveries to slow. Analyst Edison Yu reiterated his buy rating on the electric vehicle maker but slashed his price target to $345 from $420. His revised forecast is now 26% above where shares closed on Thursday. Yu noted he sees first-quarter deliveries ranging between 340,000 and 350,000, below a sell-side consensus of 378,000. This would represent an 11% year-over-year loss and a 30% quarter-over-quarter decline, as well as the lowest level since the third quarter of 2022. This also “likely means auto margin will also be under greater pressure,” he said. Tesla has seen a contentious year, with the stock giving up much of its post-election gain. Shares of Tesla have gained nearly 10% week to date, but are still down 32% on the year. TSLA 1Y mountain TSLA 1Y chart “Our view is that Tesla’s stock has been under pressure recently driven by much weaker auto volumes, broader de-rating in growth assets (e.g., Mag 7), and to some extent, political/policy uncertainty,” Yu wrote. “As we have seen over the years, rarely anything at Tesla happens in a straight line and we would not expect robotaxi or humanoid to be linear.” Yu also said that some “brand damage” caused by Musk’s political activities could hurt demand, which is something he will continue to monitor going forward. On the bright side, the company is in a good position to hedge against President Donald Trump’s intention to levy a 25% auto tariff on “all cars that are not made in the United States.” “While the new 25% tariffs can hurt Tesla, mainly on the Mexico content (20-25% depending on the model), we estimate very minimal impact under the current guidelines (powertrain, electronic components) given Tesla likely sources mostly low value-add items from there,” the analyst added. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
