The Kremlin on Tuesday warned that if European members of NATO sent troops to fight in Ukraine then it would make a conflict between Russia and NATO inevitable.

French President Emmanuel Macron opened the door on Monday to European nations sending troops to Ukraine, although he cautioned that there was no consensus at this stage as allies agreed to ramp up efforts to deliver more munitions to Kyiv.

Asked about Macron’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that if it came to pass that NATO member troops did fight in Ukraine than talk would have to change to the inevitability of a NATO-Russia conflict.

— Reuters

Russia’s Defense Ministry reportedly said on Tuesday that its forces were preventing Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnieper river to reach the Russian-occupied left bank.

Russian state news agency Tass reported a statement from the ministry that said it had destroyed Ukrainian forces’ armored vehicles, observation posts and positions on the right bank of the Dnieper, from which Ukrainian forces were launching attempts to cross the river over to the Russian-occupied bank and the village of Krynky, which Russia claimed to have recaptured from Ukraine last week.

“Russian military personnel, UAV [unmanned aerial vehicles] operators reveal the location of the equipment and weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the right bank of the Dnieper and destroy targets with precise strikes from UAVs and artillery, preventing the enemy from preparing and crossing to the islands and the left bank in the Krynok [Krynky] area,” the ministry said as reported by Tass.

Last fall, Ukrainian forces managed to cross the Dnieper river that divides the Kherson region with Ukrainian forces in the right, or western, side of the river and Russian forces occupying the left, or eastern, bank.

Russia conceded last November that some Ukrainian forces had crossed the river and set up positions in and around the village of Krynky but said they would be destroyed.

Last week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russian forces had reclaimed Krynky, stating in a televised meeting with Putin that the village had been “cleared.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Veteran human rights activist Oleg Orlov was sentenced on Tuesday by a Moscow court to two and a half years in prison after he was found guilty of discrediting Russian’s armed forces in a trial that has been condemned by international observers as politically motivated.

Orlov, 70, has served for more than two decades as one of the leaders of rights group Memorial. It won a share of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, a year after being banned and dissolved in Russia.

— Reuters

The last hurdle to Sweden’s accession to NATO was removed on Monday, with Hungary’s parliament approving the country’s membership bid after months of objections. Here’s a quick assessment of what Sweden brings to the defense alliance as its 32nd member.

“Sweden notably brings to NATO a well-equipped army, over a hundred advanced fighters, a modern navy including five submarines, as well as a technologically advanced defence industrial base,” Neil Melvin, director of International Security at defense think tank RUSI, said in a statement Tuesday.

“Sweden’s membership of the Alliance alongside Finland, which was triggered by Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine, is part of a transformation of northern Europe into a NATO bastion,” he said. 

“Russia’s actions have thus set in motion security shifts, including now Swedish NATO membership, that mean Moscow faces being militarily excluded from the Baltic Sea and its airspace, while NATO can project force more effectively across Scandinavia and into the High North and Arctic.”

Russia is now confronted with the need to build up significant military force in its north to balance the new NATO regional strength, Melvin said, adding that the necessity would further stretch Russia’s resources.

— Holly Ellyatt

North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July to support its war against Ukraine, in a sign of ongoing arms transfers, South Korean media reported on Tuesday, citing the defence minister.

At a briefing on Monday for local media, Minister Shin Won-sik said the containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds.

“It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent,” Shin said, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Hundreds of North Korean munitions factories are running at around 30% of their capacity due to a lack of raw materials and electricity, but those producing artillery shells for Russia were operating “at full swing,” he added, without elaborating on the source of the information.

Seoul and Washington have accused Pyongyang and Moscow of trading arms and condemned the North for supplying weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries have denied it even as they pledged to strengthen military cooperation.

The U.S. State Department, in a fact sheet released on Friday, said that North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions or related materials to Russia since September.

In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which Shin said has helped stabilise prices there.

An official at Seoul’s defence ministry said it could not confirm the numbers, but quoted Shin as saying that Russia has sent nearly 30% more containers since July to North Korea than the has North shipped.

Shin said North Korea could fire another satellite as early as next month as Moscow continued to provide technical aid, and Pyongyang has also asked for assistance with aircraft and ground mobility equipment technology.

“It is unclear how much Russia will give, but the more dependent Russia gets on North Korean artillery shells, the greater the degree of Russian technology transfers will be,” he said, according to Yonhap.

— Reuters

Russia’s “weaponisation of energy will likely remain a coercive instrument” against Ukraine and the wider world, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said.

“It is highly likely that Russia will continue to use energy as a weapon for global economic gain and political influence, signifying the link between energy, security, political and military objectives,” the ministry said in an intelligence update on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Monday.

Throughout the two-year conflict with Ukraine, Russia has focused many of its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, often leaving thousands of Ukrainian civilians without power and water during the coldest times of the year.

One of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, Russia continues to rely on oil and gas export revenues to fund its budget and war machine. India and China are among the countries still buying Russian oil and gas while Western countries look to reduce their imports of Russian commodities. There has been some dissent among Ukraine’s allies over Russian imports, however, with more Russia-friendly countries like Hungary and Turkey looking to strike energy deals with Moscow.

Russia’s kinetic strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have caused widespread electricity shortages across the nation, the U.K. noted, “while globally Russian President Vladimir Putin has used energy policy to undermine international energy security.”

“By reducing gas flows to Europe, through restricting pipeline exports and altering payment terms, Putin has sought to undermine unity across Europe against Russia’s illegal war,” the ministry said.

— Holly Ellyatt

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that the sending of Western troops to Ukraine has not been “ruled out.”

Speaking after a meeting of European heads of state and other Western officials in Paris, at which more aid to Ukraine was discussed, Macron said the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine had been openly discussed but that no decisions were made.

“There is no consensus today to officially, openly, and with endorsement, send troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing should be ruled out. We will do everything necessary to ensure that Russia cannot win this war,” Macron said.

The president did not give any further details on which countries could consider sending troops but said France was “not against sending them.”

Macron said Ukraine’s allies had discussed the need to increase and accelerate military aid and supplies to Kyiv, as well as a need to close sanctions loopholes allowing Russian companies to source components from countries that had imposed European or allied sanctions.

He said the EU would “impose further sanctions on companies and countries that facilitate this circumvention of sanctions.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that without new U.S. military aid his country would be unable to defend a Black Sea shipping corridor that has allowed Kyiv to export millions of tons of grain to global markets, Reuters reported Monday.

Ukraine launched the shipping corridor hugging its western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria in August, a month after Russia quit a year-long landmark deal – brokered by the United Nations and Turkey – that had allowed the safe Black Sea export of nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukraine grain.

Ukraine is on track to export all grain from its 2023 harvest despite Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure, Britain’s foreign office said this month.

“We … created the new route in the Black Sea,” Zelenskyy told CNN in an interview, describing the shipping corridor as a “big success” for so far allowing the export of about 30 million tones of grain and other agricultural products.

— Reuters

Hungary on Monday voted to approve Sweden’s NATO accession bid, ending months of diplomatic negotiations and finalizing Stockholm’s membership almost two years after it first applied to join the military alliance.

Members of the governing party led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had been opposed to Sweden joining NATO amid the country’s criticism of Hungary’s democracy.

Sweden applied to join NATO in May 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shifting away from its previous policy approach of military non-alignment.

Read the full story here.

— Karen Gilchrist, Sophie Kiderlin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov discussed economic relations and support in a meeting on Monday, Zelenskyy said in a post on social media platform X.

“I appreciate Bulgaria’s support for our efforts to expand trade flows and restore normal shipping in the Black Sea and Danube regions,” Zelenskyy said. “We agreed with Bulgaria to accelerate the development of logistics and infrastructure in our region.”

Infrastructure on the Danube river in the south of Ukraine has been crucial to the country’s grain trade since a previous deal that allowed safe passage for grain and other traded goods through the Black Sea was halted by Russia last year.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was close to being freed in a prisoner swap at the time of his death, Maria Pevchikh, a Navalny ally, said on Monday.

Speaking on YouTube, Pevchikh — who alleges the Russian authorities murdered Navalny, something they deny — said Navalny and two U.S. nationals were in line to be exchanged for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian FSB security service hit man who is serving a life sentence in Germany.

— Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after the Russian presidential election in mid-March, the Kremlin said Monday.

“Before the elections, no,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, when asked when the meeting might take place.

“But preparations for contacts at the highest level are underway, we have repeatedly stated this,” he said, news agency Interfax reported.

Peskov explained that “these contacts will take place at a time when it best suits the schedules of the two presidents.”

Putin will travel to Turkey for the meeting with Erdogan, a leader who has managed to maintain cordial relations with Russia despite Turkey’s NATO membership.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s military confirmed Monday the retreat from the village of Lastochkyne in eastern Ukraine, marking another setback on the battlefield two years into the war.

“Ukrainian Armed Forces units withdrew from the village of Lastochkyne in order to organise defences… and prevent the enemy from advancing further in a western direction,” military spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy said on television, Reuters reported.

Russian forces have made several major and minor advances in recent weeks, including the capture of the industrial city of Avdiivka, as well as a couple of smaller settlements to the west of the city.

— Holly Ellyatt