Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we break down the quickly developing race to replace Mitch McConnell, who announced his plans to retire after a decadeslong Senate career. Plus, Jonathan Allen examines who could be most affected by the Trump administration’s plans to trim the IRS. 

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— Adam Wollner

The race to replace Mitch McConnell is already on

It was an expected yet monumental announcement: Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, said he would not seek re-election next year, bringing an end to his four-decade career in Congress.

And it took mere minutes after McConnell finished his speech on the Senate floor for Republicans in Kentucky to begin publicly jockeying for the seat. 

In actuality, Republicans had been preparing for this moment for some time. McConnell, who turned 83 today, had already stepped aside from his post as Senate GOP leader. He’s been confined to a wheelchair in recent weeks after suffering a fall. Plus, some of his recent votes against President Donald Trump’s Cabinet-level nominees suggested he wasn’t worried about facing his party’s base voters again. 

Open seats in solidly red (or blue) states don’t come around very often, particularly in Kentucky, which has had only four senators since McConnell won the seat in 1984. So the Republican primary field to succeed him is expected to be crowded — and there are early signs the clashes between McConnell and Trump could be a defining feature. 

Via Ben Kamisar, here’s a look at how it’s shaking out:

• Former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who previously served as a McConnell aide and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2023, announced his Senate candidacy less than an hour after the news about McConnell’s retirement broke.
• Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., reiterated his interest in the seat, writing that the state “deserves a Senator who will fight for President Trump and the America First Agenda” and teasing a decision “soon.” Barr has already gotten some pushback from the conservative group Club for Growth. 
• Businessman Nate Morris is also considering a bid for Senate or governor in 2027. After speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference today, he posted a video to X calling Cameron and Barr “puppets” for McConnell. “We need to send someone to Washington who’s going to fight with President Trump,” Morris said. 
• One Republican who isn’t interested: Rep. James Comer, who won fans in MAGA circles for his investigation into the Biden family as House Oversight Committee chair. His spokesman said he’s “strongly considering” a run for governor instead.

What to know from the Trump presidency today

• The Senate confirmed Kash Patel as the director of the FBI, which he has talked about drastically restructuring while echoing Trump’s claims of the “weaponization” of the bureau’s powers in its Capitol riot investigations and other recent cases. The vote was 51-49, with two Republicans — Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine — joining all Democrats in opposition. 
• During a speech at CPAC, Vice President JD Vance warned of a culture that “wants to turn everybody … into androgynous idiots who think the same, talk the same and act the same.”
• A federal judge denied a bid by labor unions to block the Trump administration from carrying out mass layoffs at federal agencies.
• An appeals court declined the Justice Department’s request to immediately reinstate Trump’s executive order limiting birthright citizenship, setting up a potential emergency application to the Supreme Court. 
• The Trump administration has flown all or almost all of the migrants it had held in Guantanamo Bay out of the facility there and to Honduras.
• The administration has told organizations that provide federally funded legal representation to unaccompanied migrant children to halt the service.  

Where Trump’s IRS cuts could be felt the most

The Trump administration’s plans to fire thousands of IRS workers leaves open the question of whether taxpayers will benefit or suffer because the agency that collects revenue has been trimmed.

The answer probably depends on which taxpayers one is talking about.

At a broader level, the IRS estimated that in 2022 there was a $600 billion gap between taxes that were owed and those paid.

The tax gap, which has long existed, is a big reason that a Democratic-led Congress and President Joe Biden — in a controversial move — enacted legislation to add IRS agents. Eliminating the tax gap would allow political leaders to cut annual deficits, spend more on services or cut taxes for Americans who pay their full due.

Without creating significant new efficiencies, the reduction in the IRS’ workforce figures to contribute to the perpetuation of the tax gap. Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the National Economic Council, told reporters Thursday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to cut more than 3,500 IRS staff.  

So, who benefits?

If there are fewer audits, the answer seems obvious: Americans who owe the most in individual income taxes and the least. 

Taxpayers are most likely to be audited — at a rate of 2.7% — if they make more than $5 million in a year, according to the Congressional Research Service. People who make $1 million to $5 million get audited at a rate of 1.47%, compared to less than 1% of all filers.

At the bottom end of the income spectrum, people who claim the earned-income tax credit — low- and moderate-income taxpayers — are audited at a rate of 0.78%, which is greater than those making $25,000 to $500,000 (0.2%) or those making $500,000 to $1 million (0.68%). 

As a historical matter, IRS audits fell from 2010 to 2019, as Congress pulled back on enforcement spending. The agency focused more of its energy on the more straightforward filings of low-income taxpayers during that period, CRS reported in 2023, writing that “the likelihood that high-income taxpayers will face an audit has fallen by more than the same decline in audit probability for lower-income taxpayers.”

It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration can squeeze out more revenue with fewer tax cops on the beat. But high earners should feel better today about their prospects of getting audited.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Faith Wardwell.

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