The number of jobs in the UK oil and gas sector could plunge to just 57,000 in the next few years, with a report warning there could be the equivalent of 400 cut every fortnight.
That level of job losses would be the same as the closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery every two weeks, according to research by Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University.
It said in “low-case scenarios”, where the UK makes “slower progress” as the country transitions towards renewable energy, jobs in the oil and gas workforce would drop from 115,000 at present to “as low as 57,000 by the early 2030s”.
The report added this would be a “reduction of around 400 jobs – equivalent to the closure of the Grangemouth refinery – every two weeks”.
With almost one in 30 Scottish workers currently employed in either the offshore energy sector, or an industry which supports it – compared to one in 220 across the UK – it highlighted how the “potential risks for Scotland’s supply chain and workforce are substantial”.
Figures for 2024 show there were 154,000 people employed in the offshore energy sector – with 75% in the oil and gas sector and the remaining 25% in renewables.
The Striking The Balance report noted the production of oil is now down by “almost 75% from its peak” in 1999-2000, when it produced the equivalent of 4.5 million barrels of oil per day.
This has now dropped to 1.09 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, with the report noting that without new licences being granted “the oil and gas industry is forecast to decline by around 95% by 2050 from 2024 levels”.
The report said: “Depending on which scenario will play out, the direct and indirect UK oil and gas workforce is expected to fall from 115,000 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s, with further declines to between 33,000 and 48,000 by 2035.”
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn challenged Westminster to act in the wake of the report.
He said: “The independent expert advice is clear, we will see a Grangemouth scale of job losses each and every fortnight if the UK Government does not shift from its misguided position and protect the energy industry of today, so that the workforce can use their skills and expertise to develop the net zero industries of tomorrow.
“The opportunities of net zero are enormous but they will not be realised if the Labour Government continues with its current fiscal regime that deters stability, confidence and investment in existing industries and we therefore lose our best people, and world-class supply chain, to nations elsewhere.”
Scottish Conservative energy spokesman and North East Scotland MSP Douglas Lumsden insisted however that both the Scottish and UK governments need to change their approach.
He said the “alarming” report “lays bare the economic vandalism caused by both Labour and the SNP’s opposition to oil and gas”.
He added: “John Swinney and Keir Starmer have disgracefully sat back while jobs continue to be lost throughout the sector as both remain totally oblivious to the fact that renewables alone can’t yet satisfy our energy needs.”
Pressed on the issue in Holyrood, acting Scottish climate action minister Alasdair Allan vowed ministers will “learn” from the report, saying: “We hope the UK Government will too.”
While some areas regarding energy are devolved to Holyrood, he added that others are reserved to Westminster and “we must get helpful decisions from the UK Government”.
Mr Allan stated: “The Scottish Government is clear in our support of the economy of the north east. We are working for a just transition for Scotland’s oil and gas sector, which recognises the maturity of the North Sea basin and is in line with our climate change commitments and energy security.
“We appreciate that this report comes in the context of recent and concerning reports of job losses in the oil and gas sector.
“Workers are at the heart of Scotland’s just transition to net zero. The Scottish Government is working with the energy sector to plan for a multi-skilled workforce and enable our skilled offshore workers to carry their experience and expertise into different roles.”
He said the UK Government could provide a “full funding package” for the Acorn carbon capture and storage project in Aberdeenshire in next week’s comprehensive spending review.
A spokesperson for the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We have taken rapid steps to deliver the next generation of good jobs for North Sea workers in a fair and orderly transition as part of our Plan for Change, including by making the biggest investment in offshore wind and two first-of-a-kind carbon capture storage clusters.
“This comes alongside Great British Energy, headquartered in Aberdeen, which has already announced a £300 million investment into British supply chains, unlocking significant investment and helping to create thousands of skilled jobs
