Options traders are anticipating a potential $260 billion swing in Nvidia’s (NVDA.O) market value following the chipmaker’s second-quarter earnings, expected Wednesday, according to US options market data.
Nvidia options imply an approximate 6% move in either direction after the results, which will be released after markets close, slightly below the 7% long-term average.
This suggests investors may now have a clearer sense of what to expect as the company matures.
“The ripples from Nvidia might be more interesting than the actual move for Nvidia,” said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. “Many high-flying, speculative AI stocks have dropped significantly, but Nvidia remains just below its all-time high.”
Murphy added that if Nvidia exceeds earnings expectations, it could “support some of the more heavily impacted, speculative areas of the AI sector.”
Over the last 12 quarters, Nvidia’s implied earnings move has averaged 7.7%, while the actual move averaged about 7.6%, according to ORATS data.
After a huge rally that helped lift markets this year, the technology sector pulled back a bit this month on fading enthusiasm for those stocks.
Traders are now eying Nvidia earnings to see if its $4 trillion market valuation is justified.
Additionally, the potential impact on its forecasts from a recent revenue-sharing deal with the U.S. government will be closely watched.
Shares of Nvidia, the semiconductor giant at the heart of the AI trade, have gained about 34% this year, and closed up 1.02% on Monday at $179.81.
The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab fell 0.43% to 6,439.32 on the day and was up 9.5% year-to-date.
“It’s been (on) an amazing run,” said Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS. “It’s just a Goldilocks time for Nvidia.”