Future projection of temperature fluctuations. Time series of (a) mean, (b) variance, and (c) asymmetry index of temperature anomalies with an averaging window of 15 years from ERA5 data (thick black dots), compared with those from climate model outputs (magenta shading and lines). Triangles are extrapolation using ERA5 data; results from climate model outputs before and after 2014 were from “historical” and “ssp245” experiments, respectively. A quadratic function was used to capture the nonlinear shape of the variance, whereas linear functions were used for other extrapolations. (d) Distributions of temperature anomalies from climate model outputs (magenta shading and lines) are compared with the asymmetric double exponential distributions, where the mean, variance, and symmetric index were from values in 2000 (black lines) and the extrapolated values in 2040 (dashed lines). The magenta shading marks to the 25th and 75th percentiles of the model outputs and magenta lines show the median values (see for model list); results from each climate model are reported in .

Citation: Journal of Climate 37, 9; 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0273.1