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The Israel-Iran conflict causes market pessimism, with both Nifty and Sensex dropping nearly 1% each. Despite this, the broader market uptrend remains intact.
Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow, June 16.
Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow, June 16: The ongoing Israel-Iran war has fuelled pessimism in the stock markets and prompted investors to flee riskier assets. Sparked after Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the wee hours of Friday, the conflict has further deepened with both sides upping the ante. Market experts said that though investors are expected to remain cautious amid premium valuations and geopolitical risks, the “boarder market uptrend remains intact” on the BSE and the NSE.
According to the experts, all eyes are now on the upcoming US Fed meeting, where interest rates are likely to remain unchanged. Other central banks, Japan and the UK, will also announce their interest rates this week separately.
Ketan Vikam, head of sales at Almondz Institutional Equities, said, “Indian stock markets are likely to follow the global trend, following rising tension in the Middle East amid the Israel-Iran conflict, which could fuel further pessimism and prompt investors to flee riskier assets.”
The Indian equity markets experienced a significant downturn this week, with the benchmark indices, NSE Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, declining nearly 1% to close at 24,718 and 81,118, respectively.
How Are Indian Markets Placed?
“The index (Nifty) is still holding above the crucial 55-day EMA (exponential moving average) near 24,300, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact,” said Puneet Singhania, director at Master Trust Group.
The 55-day EMA is a technical indicator that shows the average price of a stock or index over the past 55 days, giving more weight to recent prices to spot long-term trends. It helps investors see the trend of a stock or index by smoothing out daily price ups and downs.
Brokerage firm Choice Broking in its note said the Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs on the weekly timeframe, including the short-term (20-week), medium-term (50-week), and long-term (200-week) EMAs. If a stock or index is above 20-week, 50-week and 200-week EMAs, it indicates medium-term and long-term uptrend.
“This alignment indicates a strong underlying uptrend and suggests that the index is well-supported on dips, with bullish momentum likely to continue in the near term,” it added.
Key Support & Resistance Levels After Israel-Iran War
Singhania said strong support lies in the 24,450–24,500 zone, a previously tested demand area. “A breakdown below the mentioned support zone may lead to a decline toward 24,200, the recent weekly low.”
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,900; a decisive breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward 25,600. Positional traders can look to buy near support, he added.
Support level is the price where a stock usually stops falling, while resistance level is where it often struggles to go higher. In other words, support is like a floor where prices tend to bounce up, and resistance is like a ceiling where prices often get stuck.
Choice Broking said the Nifty has immediate support at 24,600 and 24,400, which could offer strong buying opportunities for traders on dips. On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,800 and 25,000, with the latter acting as a key hurdle.
“A sustained breakout above 25,200 could trigger a bullish rally, potentially targeting 25,500 and 25,700 in the coming weeks,” it added.
Market Volatility
The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, surged by 7.60% to close at 15.0800 on the daily timeframe, reflecting a rise in market nervousness and indicating the possibility of heightened volatility in the near term.
Option Chain Analysis
In the derivatives segment, the highest call open interest (OI) is concentrated at the 24,800 and 25,000 strikes, suggesting strong resistance around these levels, Choice Broking said.
On the downside, the highest Put Open Interest is seen at the 24,600 and 24,500 strikes, indicating strong support and traders’ confidence in holding these levels, it added.
Open interest (OI) shows the total number of active futures and options contracts in the market, helping investors gauge market strength and trend direction. Its analysis tells you how many traders are betting on a stock or index level, helping you understand if a price move or support/ resistance is strong or weak.
What’s Next?
Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain cautious amid premium valuations and geopolitical risks. All eyes are now on the upcoming US Fed meeting, where interest rates are likely to remain unchanged. However, the Fed’s commentary and economic projections will be closely scrutinised for future policy cues, said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments Ltd.
The Nifty futures, or the GIFT Nifty, closed flat or marginally higher by 3.5 points at 24,743 (as of June 15, 2025,at 2:44 am).
Bank Nifty
According to Choice Broking, the Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages, including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). This indicates an overall upward trend, but pressure from higher levels suggests that some consolidation phase is underway, and the index is unable to hold higher levels, with downside support near the 55,000-54,500 range.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62.12, indicating a mild sideways to bearish move. However, the sideways movement suggests a phase of consolidation, potentially leading to
a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh cues for the next directional move.
“The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 56,000–56,500 range. If the index continues to move higher, HDFCBANK from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBI is anticipated to show strength,” it added.
Markets Last Week
The Indian equity markets ended the week sharply lower, with the Nifty 50 and the Sensex slipping nearly 1% to close at 24,718 and 81,118, respectively. The decline was mainly due to rising geopolitical tensions after Israel launched an airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising fears of a wider conflict.
Brent crude surged up to 12% to nearly $78 per barrel, triggering inflation concerns for India, a major oil importer. Higher oil prices also dimmed hopes of a US Fed rate cut ahead of its meeting next week. Further rattling global markets were renewed tariff threats by US President Donald Trump, effective July 9, sparking fears of a trade war.
Foreign investors sold Indian equities worth Rs 1,246 crore, but strong domestic institutional buying of Rs 18,637 crore helped cushion the fall.
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to markets, economy and companies. Having a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris has been previously asso…Read More
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to markets, economy and companies. Having a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris has been previously asso… Read More
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