(left) Error in the regression model track predictions for time increments into the future starting with 0 km at the given genesis point. Shaded regions represent one standard deviation. (right) Directional bias of the regression model predictions relative to the actual track movement starting at the genesis point. The two lines start at the origin at time t = 0 when the storm is at its genesis point and the error is 0. Then, over time, they move outward along the radial axis, which represents kilometers of distance between the predicted and real track, while the color of the scatter points represent hours elapsed since genesis. The angle represents the direction that the predicted storm is in relative to the “actual” (AM2.5-C360 model–generated) storm at a given time step. Shaded regions represent one standard deviation.
Citation: Journal of Climate 37, 5; 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0088.1