As Diwali 2025 approaches, gold and silver markets have shown remarkable performance, with increases of over 47% and 52% respectively this year. On the MCX, prices have exceeded Rs 1,18,000 per 10 grams, leading investors to speculate about further growth potential during the upcoming festive period.Analysts, quoted by Economic Times, predict continued growth, with gold potentially reaching Rs 1.22 lakh by Diwali.The 2025 precious metals surge has been driven by various factors including festival demand, accommodative central bank policies, global political tensions and sustained ETF investments, leading to unprecedented price levels.Silver prices have also risen significantly, trading above Rs 1.44 lakh per kg, with projections suggesting Rs 1.50 lakh by the festival period.Renisha Chainani of Augmont Research anticipates a “bullish-to-consolidation phase” during Diwali, noting that whilst recent gains might encourage profit-taking, the overall positive trend continues. “Gold has surged past Rs 1,18,000 on MCX while silver trades above Rs 1,44,000, supported by safe-haven demand amid the US government shutdown, tariff uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts,” Chainani told ETMarkets.Regarding Diwali 2025 projections for precious metals- Chainani forecasts that by October 21, gold could reach $3950-$4000 internationally (Rs 1,20,000-Rs 1,22,000 on MCX), while silver might achieve $49-$50 (Rs 1,48,000-Rs 1,50,000), particularly if global tensions increase. She notes that “key drivers of bullishness include dovish Fed policy, a weaker US dollar, continued ETF inflows, and robust Indian festive demand.“The industrial sector and green energy requirements could boost silver demand. However, she notes that market stabilisation could occur due to profit collection, US dollar strengthening, or reduced global tensions.Manoj Kumar Jain from Prithvifinmart Commodity Research notes that September’s performance, with gold increasing over 10% and silver 15% internationally, indicates a “super bull run” for both metals. Additionally, his predictions include gold reaching Rs 1,22,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,25,000 by year-end, with silver potentially hitting Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,58,000-Rs 1,60,000 respectively.Internationally, Jain anticipates gold at $3940-$4000 and silver at $48.40-$50 per troy ounce. Support levels are $3720 (international) and Rs 1,10,660 (domestic) for gold, with silver at $44.40 and Rs 1,34,400. Jain recommends: “We suggest buying gold and silver on dips for the target of Rs 1,22,000 and Rs 1,50,000, respectively and avoid any kind of short selling in both precious metals.”As Diwali approaches, jeweller and retail demand is expected to increase. Traditional peak buying during festivals and weddings could further strengthen prices already elevated by global economic uncertainties.Despite potential profit-taking opportunities, analysts maintain that fundamental factors remain positive, with any price decreases likely being temporary.Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities said, “By Diwali 2025, gold may trade around Rs 1,19,000-Rs1,20,000/10g, driven by global uncertainties, central bank buying, high inflation, Fed stance and a weaker rupee. Safe-haven demand is strong as geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown fears persist.”He adds that silver might reach Rs 1,48,000-Rs 1,50,000/kg, supported by industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and EVs, alongside investment interest. “Supply constraints and a falling rupee further fuel price momentum. With interest rates expected to fall globally, precious metals may gain. However, high volatility and profit-booking can cause short dips. Overall, both metals show a bullish outlook for Diwali 2025 in rupee terms, supported by macroeconomic trends, weak INR, and robust investor interest in hard assets,” Trivedi further added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
