A year ago at this time, Jordan Hawkins was coming off a season in which he started just four games and averaged 5.8 points. Bryce Hopkins averaged 2.1 points during a disappointing freshman season at Kentucky before transferring. Olivier-Maxence Prosper was a role player and Kris Murray was in his brother’s shadow.
Time is said to be a gift and to use it wisely.
Hawkins finished as a first-round pick and national champion with the UConn Huskies. Hopkins was a unanimous first-team All-Big East selection after averaging 15.8 points for the Providence Friars. Prosper averaged 12.5 points for the Marquette Golden Eagles and ended up as a first-round pick after impressing in pre-draft workouts. Murray followed a similar trajectory to his brother and put up 20.2 points and 7.9 rebounds for the Iowa Hawkeyes before leaving as a first-round pick.
There will again be breakouts this season, whether it’s a transfer fitting in better at a new home, a former highly-touted recruit realizing his full potential or simply a freshman making a progression as a sophomore.
For the purposes of this list, we included only second-year players, so Miami Hurricanes guard Wooga Poplar — who is generating rave reviews and even some NBA hype — and Arkansas Razorbacks forward Trevon Brazile — a projected second-round pick — weren’t included. We also didn’t include players who started 30-plus games last season, which precludes Dillon Mitchell, Mark Mitchell, Adem Bona and others from making this list, even if they’re primed for huge steps forward from a statistical perspective.
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Donovan Clingan rocks the rim with alley-oop for UConn
Tristen Newton tees up Donovan Clingan for a powerful slam as UConn extends its lead.
Clingan has been earmarked for a breakout sophomore season since just about the moment he stepped on campus two summers ago. The 7-foot-2 Bristol, Connecticut, native backed up All-American Adama Sanogo last season, but showed very clear flashes of how good he could be with increased minutes: He averaged 6.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in just 13.1 minutes, with per 40 numbers of 21.1 points, 17.2 rebounds and 5.5 blocks, shooting nearly 66% from the field. Clingan played more than 20 minutes in two games all season and averaged 16.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks in those two games. He’s currently No. 6 in ESPN’s 2024 mock draft.
What we’re hearing: “There may be better returning low-post scorers in terms of upperclassmen that maybe produce higher points per game, but the thing about Donovan that makes him special is what he does vertically in the ball-screen game, the pressure he puts on the rim that creates 3s and driving lanes. And then his rim protection and running.
Two things prevented Boswell from getting off to a hot start during his freshman season in Tucson. One, he suffered a foot injury two summers ago that he was still rehabbing when he arrived at school. Two, Tommy Lloyd had veteran guards Kerr Kriisa and Courtney Ramey already lined up in the backcourt. But Boswell made his presence felt once the calendar turned to 2023, becoming a key player off the bench. He scored in double figures four times, averaging 4.6 points and shooting 39% from 3. With Kriisa and Ramey gone, Boswell will battle with Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley for the starting point guard spot. He’s currently No. 41 in ESPN’s 2024 mock draft.
What we’re hearing: “He’s got supreme confidence, a relentless work ethic and high-level shot-making ability. That’s why he’s expected to take a jump this season. He came in last year at 17 years old, recovering from a foot injury. He needed time to get acclimated to college basketball. But by the second half of Pac-12 play, it was clear he was ready to take a big jump moving forward.” — Pac-12 coach
This is a borderline inclusion due to his productivity last season, but everyone around the SEC expects Kugel to make a jump and become a national name during the upcoming campaign. The first half of his season was choppy, as Kugel came off the bench for most of the first two and a half months of the season, but once he was inserted into the starting lineup, he finished on a tear. Over the final 10 games of the season, Kugel averaged 17.3 points and shot 39.6% from 3 — finishing the season with averages of 9.9 points and 37.6% 3-point shooting. He’s knocking on the first-round door in early mock drafts.
What we’re hearing: “Kugel was the best player on a Florida team that had Colin Castleton. After every game, as a staff we talk about the opposing team and say, which guy would we want on our team? And to a man, it was Kugel. He has the rare ability to both be a high free-throw attempt player and a high-volume 3-point shooter.” — SEC coach
Mike Woodson will need one of these two former five-star recruits to become a go-to option up front this season. Ware, who transferred from Oregon, is the more intriguing one from an NBA perspective. He’s a 7-foot center with an incredibly high ceiling given his ability to run the floor and play inside and out. He had 18 points and nine rebounds against UConn and 17 points and nine boards against Michigan State early last season, but his role fizzled out toward the end of the campaign. He averaged 6.6 points — but is still a projected first-round pick.
Meanwhile, Reneau spent last season backing up All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, but showed impressive rebounding ability at both ends of the floor and scored in double-figures seven times — with four of those outings coming in the first five games of the season. He finished the season averaging 6.1 points and 3.7 boards.
What we’re hearing: “Ware is intriguing. He’s tall and he is able to shoot jumpshots. I think he needs to get tougher. The issue is sometimes he plays and sometimes he produces and sometimes he plays hard. You need to be able to rely on him night in and night out.
“Malik, I see the appeal. He’s switchable, he can occasionally shoot and he can finish. He’s an active defender. He can get up and hard hedge. He gets deflections that lead to runouts. He’s going to get what he gets. High floor, limited ceiling type. He could embrace a Kenneth Faried-type, small-ball 5.” — NBA scout
Miller entered last season with plenty of hype from NBA draft circles after starring for Real Madrid’s youth teams and the younger age groups of the Spain national team. But he was suspended for the first 16 games of the season after the NCAA found he received money to travel from Spain to the United States and back. The 6-11 forward reminded scouts of his ability at the FIBA U19 World Cup this past summer, starting all seven games and averaging 9.4 points and 6.0 boards in leading Spain to a gold medal. ESPN has him as a first-round pick in its 2024 mock draft.
What we’re hearing: “Baba comes into the season with shin splints. When he does have a chance to practice, he pulls a groin. And then he gets hit with the 16-game suspension. At 18 years old. Making adjustments 1,000 miles away from home. And then you come back after 16 games and you’re trying to fit in. So what’s your role? Baba was coming back to a team that was not what we intended… Fast forward, season’s over, he’s healthy. Plays in the U19 games, they win it. Goes to the Nike thing, does well out there. He’s a new person. He’s coming back with a level of confidence and a little bit of, I want to play a lot better for my team. Such an unselfish kid. And he’s really a great teammate. He’s a unique individual with tremendous skills.” — Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton
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Terrance Arceneaux gets in the paint for the lay-in
Terrance Arceneaux gets the layup to go as Houston cut in to Memphis’ early lead.
At the high school level, Arceneaux was one of the most gifted offensive players in the 2022 class. A former ESPN 100 recruit, the 6-6 wing had size and scoring ability at all three levels. But there was a learning curve last season, as Arceneaux spent most of his time backing up one of the best — and oldest — backcourts in the country. With Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark gone, though, Kelvin Sampson will need his scoring ability. He averaged 3.7 points in 13.9 minutes last season, but had nine points in a late-season spot start when Sasser was out injured. He’s No. 20 in ESPN’s 2024 mock draft.
What we’re hearing: “He’s got size. Athleticism. Potential with the jump shot. He is in the mold of a prospect with the talent and raw abilities that you look for at his age. It was always about getting him to play harder and for longer periods, throwing more consistency into the jumper and getting stronger. He has a solid pedigree of winning. Houston isn’t for everyone but it is also the exact place that he needed to go if he wanted to extinguish the negatives related to the toughness and motor questions.” –– NBA scout
A late-bloomer at the high school level, Claude is hoping his late-season form carries over to his sophomore season — and the recent buzz coming out of Cincinnati indicates he’s ready for a big step forward. The 6-5 guard can play on or off the ball, and with Xavier effectively losing its top six players from last season, Claude will be relied upon as both a scorer and playmaker. He scored in double-figures four times in the month of March last season, including 11 points in the NCAA tournament against Pitt. Claude finished the season averaging 4.7 points.
What we’re hearing: “He’s made a huge jump, he really has. We saw glimpses a year ago, whether it be in practice and then he became a really important ingredient to last year’s team. His work ethic, adding more consistency shooting, a lot like Colby Jones did. Just really working the last five, six months. He’s worked endlessly in the gym, he loves the game. His uniqueness is his size. He’s 6-5, I think his wingspan is 6-8, but he’s very good with the ball. No doubt, we’re expecting big things. We need him to be great and we think he can be.” — Xavier coach Sean Miller
Dunn wasn’t an ESPN 100 recruit coming out of high school, and he didn’t start a single game for Virginia last season, averaging 2.6 points in 13.0 minutes. But the 6-8 wing has received glowing offseason reports and is now ranked No. 21 in ESPN’s 2024 mock draft. Virginia doesn’t have much in the way of returning production, with Dunn the team’s third-leading returning scorer behind Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely. As a result, Tony Bennett will need Dunn to produce on the offensive end. He showed flashes of that late in the season, scoring 10 points in 18 minutes against Clemson and nine points in 19 minutes against Louisville.
What we’re hearing: “He’s improved. He played 11 minutes a game and his story is good. I think he can be a monster defender. I think he has a chance to do that and continue to impact the game in the little ways. And then just continue to improve his offensive game. I think those will be the key. But it always starts with [defense]. Other guys we’ve had, it’s been their ability on both ends, but especially that defensive end. That’s been huge.” — Virginia coach Tony Bennett
UCLA loses five of its top six players from last season, with longtime starting point guard Tyger Campbell among that group. And that’s where Andrews comes in. He’s one of just four players on UCLA’s roster who scored a basket for the Bruins last season, and his 3.3 points per game average leaves him as the team’s second-leading returning scorer. Andrews is a former top-50 recruit in the ESPN 100, and he should be a stabilizing force in UCLA’s backcourt. He had 11 points and six assists in a game against Denver last season and also had 10 points in 10 minutes against Utah in February.
What we’re hearing: “Mick [Cronin] will use him a lot like Tyger. I think he will end up in a lot of pull-up 2s, probably won’t have the same freedom Tyger had. It will be interesting to see if he shoots 3s better. There is a spot for him to grab as their main guard and I expect him to be that when all is said and done. I think he will get there. It took Tyger a good year and a half to make that jump with Mick. And there is zero backup option to him at point guard.” — Pac-12 coach
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Guillermo Diaz Graham elevates for dunk vs. Duke Blue Devils
Guillermo Diaz Graham elevates for dunk vs. Duke Blue Devils
This is something of a deeper breakout pick, but Diaz Graham showed some very impressive flashes toward the end of last season and there’s been a growing intrigue in NBA circles surrounding him. Drawing comparisons to a version of Chet Holmgren, the skinny 7-footer with touch out to the perimeter started just three games last season — the final three games of Pitt’s season in the NCAA tournament. But that included nine points, eight rebounds and three blocks against Iowa State and 11 points, eight boards and three blocks against Xavier. He also had 14 points and eight rebounds in the ACC tournament against Duke. It’s worth noting his twin brother, Jorge Diaz Graham, has many of the same traits — and shot 35.3% from 3 as a 6-11 freshman last season.
What we’re hearing: “He’s gotten stronger and that has helped him become more confident as a player. Certainly the experience last year, especially at the end of the season, what he was able to do and how well he played, and you add 20-25 pounds and that experience of knowing college basketball and how to prepare. He’s a very unique player because he’s 7-foot and he can shoot the basketball and he can pass. He has a great feel for the game. He’s not a big guy, he’s just 7-feet. It’s a different type of weapon. Because of his size, you have a big guy on him but he’s on the perimeter doing a lot of stuff out there. To me, it’s his feel. He has an unbelievable feel for the game.” — Pitt coach Jeff Capel
Like a couple of other guys on this list, Gayle came on strong toward the end of the season and is hoping to carry that momentum into his second season in Columbus. Ohio State struggled mightily in 2022-23, losing 14 of 15 games between the start of January and late February, but that ultimately allowed Chris Holtmann to slot Gayle into the starting lineup for 10 of the final 11 games of the campaign. And Gayle was at his best in the Big Ten tournament, scoring 15 points against Michigan State in the semifinals and 20 points against Purdue in the title game. In four games, he shot 9-for-11 from 3-point range.
What we’re hearing: “He’s going to lead them in scoring. He’s a 6-foot-4 guard with really promising percentages from last season. And it’s not like this guy is someone we haven’t heard of or wasn’t highly rated. He was a recognized recruit as a sophomore in high school. It always just comes down to consistency, which was another piece to the puzzle last year. He is playing alongside one of the sturdiest lead guards in America and one of the better rim presences in the league. Now you take away [Brice] Sensabaugh and you throw him in a major role and ask for him to be a guy every night. I would be surprised if he wasn’t close to 16 points per game with a few 25-plus games thrown in there.” — NBA scout
