Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supremo Nawaz Sharif — who has returned to Pakistan today after ending a 4-year self-imposed exile in London — to take a fourth shot at power, might not be able to contest the upcoming polls expected to be held in the last week of January 2024, says Geo News anchorperson and political analyst Shahzeb Khanzada on Saturday.

The Supreme Court disqualified the three-time former prime minister from holding public office in a landmark decision on the Panama Papers case in July 2017. Shortly after the apex court order, Nawaz, despite having “strong reservations” had stepped down from his post as the premier.

In February 2018, a three-judge SC bench headed by then chief justice Mian Saqib Nisar ruled that an individual disqualified under Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution cannot serve as head of a political party.

In July 2018, an accountability court handed down Nawaz a 10-year imprisonment for owning assets beyond his known source of income. In addition to this, the PML-N supremo was awarded one year imprisonment for not cooperating with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). The Avenfield properties corruption reference was filed by the anti-graft watchdog.

In the second convention in the same year, the former prime minister was sentenced to rigorous imprisonment for seven years along with a fine of Rs1.5 billion and $25 million in the Al-Azizia Steel Mills and Hill Metal Establishment reference.

In November 2019, the Lahore High Court (LHC) allowed the PML-N supremo to travel abroad for four weeks — in view of his deteriorating health conditions — and ordered the government to remove his name from the no-fly list without imposing any conditions, after the ex-PM assured the court of his return within the specified time in a court-approved undertaking. 

The court allowed Nawaz to leave the country for a period of four weeks, which was extendable on the basis of medical reports. Nawaz left for London from Lahore in an air ambulance on November 19, 2019, but did not return.

The 73-year-old veteran politician, however, returned to Islamabad today. After completing legal formalities in the federal capital, the PML-N supremo arrived in Lahore where he will address a rally at Minar-e-Pakistan.

His convictions are still in force, however, the IHC on October 19, 20223, barred authorities from arresting him until Tuesday, when he is to appear in court.

While he cannot run again for election or hold public office because of his convictions, his legal team says he plans to appeal and his party says he aims to become prime minister for a fourth time.

Speaking on Geo News special transmission, Khanzada said: “Let’s see whether he succeeds in convincing his supporters that he can solve the country’s economic problems or not.”

“If you look at his 25 years of political history, you may find him a lucky politician as he made comeback again and again,” Khanzada said.

“Despite the establishment and the judiciary was reportedly against him, the PML-N supremo could not be made a political irreverent,” he added. But at the same time, he said, one may find him an unlucky politician as he could not contest elections during the past 25 years, except once — 2013 polls.

Responding to a question about his disqualification, he also said that the PML-N supremo might not contest the upcoming polls expected to be held in January next year.

The courts’ judgments could be suspended but a ruling on his appeals and acquittal might not be possible in such a short span of time, remarked the anchorperson.

To another question about the current political spectrum, Khanzada said: “The challenge is bigger for this time. [Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman] Imran Khan is [still] a popular leader despite the state machinery being used against him.”

Earlier, Nawaz had been returning to the country after giving a challenge as he gave a challenge to the establishment in 2018 but this time challenges were awaiting the three-time former prime minister, he added.

Responding to the 16-month performance of the PML-N-led coalition alliance, the anchorperson said that the former ruling party had failed to deliver or meet the promises they had made to the people.

“The former government had left behind [skyrocketing] inflation, he added.

Moving onto the solution to economic problems being faced by the country, Khanzada said that friendly countries are now demanding Pakistan revive its economy and fulfil the IMF conditions ahead of giving a helping hand. “He [Nawaz] will fail if he is coming with the previous approach or the Ishaq Dar model in his mind,” he said, adding that Dar had failed to meet the challenges in the recent past.

He stressed the need for a comprehensive strategy and government-establishment cooperation to steer the country out of the economic crisis.