President Trump’s tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico could lead to higher domestic vehicle prices and dent profit margins for automakers, according to industry analysts.

The average $25,000 price of a car imported from Mexico or Canada could jump $6,250 if the tariffs take effect, according to an analysis by S&P Global Mobility. The automotive research firm forecasts that importers would likely pass most of any increase in their costs along to consumers. 

“The automotive industry is at a critical juncture,” Michael Robinet, vice president of forecasting at S&P Global Mobility said in a statement. “The proposed tariffs could not only inflate vehicle prices but also disrupt production schedules, with estimates suggesting a potential 30% decrease in production for high-exposure vehicles once tariffs are enacted, even if only for the short-term.” 

After President Trump on Feb. 1 signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tax on Chinese goods, the White House on Monday suspended those plans for the U.S.’ North American neighbors for at least a month to conduct negotiations. 

Whether those talks will yield a breakthrough is uncertain. But in response to pressure from Mr. Trump. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have pledged to step up efforts to combat the flow of illicit drugs and migrants across their borders with the U.S.

The Trump administration sees tariffs as a way to exact better terms with U.S. trading partners as well as to leverage other policy gains. In a Feb. 2 post on social media, Mr. Trump acknowledged a new wave of tariffs could cause “some pain” for Americans, but said his broader vision for the country “will all be worth the price that must be paid.”

Impact on automakers

While the 25% levies on Canada and Mexico have been paused, auto manufacturers are bracing for impact. 

In an earnings call with analysts on Wednesday, Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley said the company is positioned to manage “a few weeks of tariffs.” But a prolonged period of higher tariffs would wipe out the company’s profits, drive up vehicle prices and slow economic growth, he said.

“There is no question that tariffs at 25% level from Canada and Mexico, if they’re protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the U.S. jobs as well as the entire value system in our industry,” Farley said. “Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers.”

Farley said Ford has enough inventory, including parts, to endure a couple of weeks of tariffs without having to ship car components across the U.S.’s southern and northern borders. Over the long-term, however, the company would have to “make some major strategy shifts,” he said, including building new plants in the U.S. to circumvent the taxes. 

Mr. Trump has said higher tariffs would spur both U.S. and foreign companies to create more jobs in the U.S. Most economists express skepticism that a higher tariff regime would lead to such a boom, saying most costs would trickle down to American consumers.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra last week also alluded to the effects tariffs could have on its business, saying the company is considering restructuring its supply chain to cushion the blow from tariffs.

“We’re doing the planning and have several levers that we can pull,” Barra said in an earnings call.

Aptiv, which makes car parts, including vehicle software, hardware and electrical/electronic architecture, has also recently cautioned that potential tariffs could hurt its supply chain. 

“Very intertwined” economies

Roughly 3.6 million light vehicles were imported into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico in 2024, accounting for 22% of all car sales nationwide, according to S&P Global Mobility. Mexico is the largest source of U.S. light vehicle imports, representing about 15% of sales. 

“The tariffs would really hit the automobile industry hard because the motor vehicle industries of the U.S., Mexico and Canada are very intertwined,” Marcus Noland, trade policy expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CBS MoneyWatch. “Parts will cross the border seven to eight times before final assembly, and the tariffs are applied every time a part crosses — so costs would go up very quickly.” 

Manufacturers could reshore some production to the U.S. to avoid the levies, he said, but that would take time and require investing in new manufacturing facilities and labor. 

“The amount of disruption this would cause cannot be overstated,” Nolan said, adding that the tariffs would also “tank” the Mexican economy given how dependent it is on automobile exports to the U.S.

“If they start going belly up, you’ll have unemployed people along the U.S. border, and the ironic thing is one of the reasons for this action was illegal migration, and it could actually incentivize illegal migration. By damaging the Mexican economy, you would probably increase the levels of illegal migration,” he added.

Reshoring challenges

Automakers are mulling actions to offset possible cost increases, according to manufacturing executives and supply chain experts. But ramping up domestic production presents major challenges, analysts note. 

Reshoring production would drive up manufacturing costs due to higher labor expenses, and could contribute to an existing labor shortage, according to S&P Global Mobility. 

Duncan Angove, CEO of digital supply-chain company Blue Yonder, told CBS MoneyWatch he expects U.S. automakers to double down on investing in automation and artificial intelligence to cut down on production costs, noting that the tariffs will either reduce companies’ profit margins or result in higher prices for consumers. 

“Even before, there was a lot of investment pouring into new technology and automation,” he said. “But because they realize they can’t pass the whole tariff increase along to the consumer, they are making these investments to reduce costs.” 

Meanwhile, if new car prices rise, more U.S. consumers would likely turn to the used car market, which would drive up prices of second-hand vehicles, he added.

“Bonanza” for foreign competitors

On Ford’s earnings call Wednesday, Farley said U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico would not only hurt American automakers, but also benefit foreign competitors not subject to higher import duties, such as Korea’s Hyundai and Japan’s Honda and Toyota.

“If we’re going to have a tariff policy that lasts for a month or whatever it’s going to be, years, it better be comprehensive for our industry,” Farley said. “We can’t just cherry-pick one place or the other, because this is a bonanza for our import competitors.”

Tom Narayan, lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets, told CBS MoneyWatch that prolonged tariffs would result in the U.S. “hurting American companies and helping Korean and Japanese companies.”

“If automakers have to unwind all discounting and raise prices to sell vehicles, then we are talking about volume declines and major affordability problems for the auto industry,” added James Picariello, senior automotive analyst at BNP Paribas Exane.

However, Picariello also thinks the tariffs could bring up to a quarter of their vehicle production back to the U.S. An increase of that size wouldn’t require manufacturers to build new plants, he said, given that on average U.S. car makers are currently only producing at about 55% capacity domestically. 

“You can get 1 million units reshored within a reasonable scenario, and the Trump administration can declare a win of some kind. Moving a million units back to the U.S. sounds like a big enough number for the administration to advertise,” he said.