ISLAMABAD/LAHORE: Authorities have warned of a high flood in the River Ravi at Shahdara tonight (Wednesday) as Punjab is facing an “exceptionally high” risk of flooding due to a combination of heavy rains and the excess water India is releasing from the dams.

India opened all gates of major dams on rivers in its part of the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) region following heavy rains, and warned Pakistan of the possibility of downstream flooding, an Indian government source said.

Pakistan said Islamabad received the warning, and subsequently issued an alert for flooding on three rivers which flow into the country from India.

According to the National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), the Ravi at Jassar is carrying a high flood of 202,200 cusecs, which could rise to 229,700 cusecs. At Shahdara in Lahore, the river is currently flowing at 72,900 cusecs, putting low-lying areas, including Shahdara, Park View and Motorway-2 at risk of flooding.

The peak flow is expected to reach Shahdara between 10pm and 12am before moving towards Balloki around 9am on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Indian High Commission has also shared data with Pakistan, on the basis of which the Indus Water Commissioner’s office issued a flood alert. According to the warning, a high flood is expected in the Sutlej at Ferozepur (downstream), in the Ravi at Madhopur (downstream), and in the Chenab at Akhnoor.

Separately, the NEOC reported an extremely high flood in the Sutlej, with 245,000 cusecs recorded at Ganda Singh Wala and 100,355 cusecs at Sulemanki. In the Chenab, an unusually high discharge of 769,481 cusecs was measured at Marala, with 705,225 cusecs recorded at Khanki. Officials noted that flows at Khanki have begun to ease.

Authorities said abrupt rises in the Ravi and Chenab over the past 24 hours had posed serious challenges, prompting precautionary evacuations from vulnerable areas. Thousands of people have been shifted from floodplains in Punjab.

In Shakargarh, Narowal and Gujranwala districts, rescue teams have evacuated dozens of people trapped in floodwaters after heavy overnight rains swelled rivers and streams. Roads, schools and villages were inundated in parts of Narowal, while sections of Head Khanki road in Gujranwala were submerged, cutting off access to nearby villages. 

In Dadu, Sindh, floodwaters from the Indus inundated villages and damaged crops.

Meanwhile, the Flood Forecasting Division reported that Tarbela Dam had filled to capacity, while Mangla is nearing the three-fourths mark. Low to medium floods were recorded at several barrages along the Indus, including Guddu and Sukkur, though the Jhelum, Kabul and other rivers were flowing normally.

In line with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s directives, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is overseeing all rescue and relief operations. NEOC said its control room is fully functional round the clock, while NDMA remains in close contact with civil and military agencies.

Residents living along riverbanks and waterways have been urged to immediately move to safer locations as rescue and relief teams remain on standby.

‘Water levels in Punjab rivers to begin receding’

PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia, earlier in the day, said that the water levels in major rivers across Punjab were expected to start receding following a pause in rainfall in the upper catchment areas. He said that the easing trend comes after days of heavy flows, particularly in the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers.

While addressing a press conference in Lahore, Kathia noted that the Sutlej had been in a “high flood” situation for five to 10 days but the flow at Ganda Singh was now steady at 245,000 cusecs and no longer rising.

In the wake of the situation, floodplains along the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers have been evacuated. Between 20,000 and 25,000 people were moved to safety from the Ravi and Chenab floodplains last night, Kathiya confirmed.

The PDMA chief said one of the primary challenges is the River Ravi, where the flow at Jassar had risen to more than 200,000 cusecs, causing the predicted surge at Shahdara tonight, before moving towards Balloki around 9am on Wednesday.

“The Ravi has a capacity of 250,000 cusecs at Shahdara. We expect the flow to remain between 180,000 and 190,000 cusecs, which can easily pass through,” he said. The last surge of this scale was recorded in 1988, when the river swelled to 346,500 cusecs.

Kathia said the sudden increase in water levels in the Ravi and Chenab yesterday had posed a serious challenge but evacuation efforts had been completed. “We are confident the water will safely pass through Shahdara and there will be no casualties,” he added.

He appealed to the public to avoid the floodplains, assuring that all rescue and relief teams remain on standby.

Army called in for rescue efforts

The provincial government called in army troops earlier in the day to help rescue people from already flooded areas in the Punjab province, and for relief and evacuation efforts. 

Rescue 1122, civil defence, police and local administration are already on the ground, but the scale of the crisis has stretched their resources thin. The authorities had began forced evacuations due to floods on Friday.

The Punjab Home Department has formally written to the federal interior ministry requesting deployment of troops in the six districts.

The number of displaced people in Punjab due to flooding now exceeds 167,000, including nearly 40,000 people who left voluntarily following flood warnings since August 14.

The death toll from flooding in Pakistan since the start of the monsoon season in late June now stands at 802, half of them in this month alone.

— With additional input from Reuters