Pakistan’s primary stock index rose to a six-year high on Friday on hopes that the rising rupee will help reduce inflationary pressures.
The KSE-100 Index increased by 0.9% to reach 50,673.04 and increased its month-to-month gain by about 10%, ranking second among the more than 90 global equity indexes monitored by Bloomberg. The gauge is still trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.2 for the next year, compared to 8.8 for the MSCI Frontier Markets.
According to Faisal Bilwani, head of international sales at Alfalah CLSA Securities Pvt., “The recent recovery in the Pakistani rupee, the secondary debt market hinting at peak rates, and inflation readings will help channel fresh funds back to equities at current very attractive multiples.”
According to Bilwani, the market will probably “remain in limelight” now that the KSE-100 has finally surpassed the 50,000 milestone after six years.
Following an initial agreement with the International Monetary Fund in June for a $3 billion loan programme to help the country avoid a default, stocks in Pakistan have increased by 23%. The rupee, the best-performing currency among those tracked by Bloomberg, has recovered almost 10% from a record low in September.
The nation’s economy still has a lot of problems. According to Ankur Shukla, a South Asia economist for Bloomberg Intelligence, “inflation is hovering around 30% and is set to stay elevated this year due to hikes in energy prices demanded by the IMF”.
Given Pakistan’s limited foreign exchange reserves and the country’s still-high inflation rate, the recent spike in global oil prices could put an end to the current stock market rise, according to Ruchir Desai, a portfolio manager at Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.
Since the Israel-Hamas conflict erupted on October 7, crude prices have increased by 10%.
For the rally to continue until 2024, he said that national elections, which are anticipated for late January, would be crucial to luring investors to the country. Completion of a new IMF programme is also essential.
Adnan Khan, head of foreign sales at Intermarket Securities Ltd., stated that “values are still low and a successful IMF review could potentially unlock new highs for Pakistan equities.” “We are still optimistic.”
