Islamabad is all decked up for one of the most significant moments in its history. At present, Pakistan’s capital city, is at the centre of global geopolitics owing to its role in ending what was predicted to be a potential third World War, one that many feared could be a reason for death and destruction in Iran and the broader Middle Eastern region. Pakistan, after displaying its restraint and deliberation with regards to the intensifying conflict in the region, triggered by the United States and Israel’s war against Iran — particularly impacting its immediate neighbour Iran as well as brotherly nations in the Gulf — emerged as an underdog when its role as a direct mediator between the US and Iran came to the surface, especially in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s warning to end “a whole civilisation” when referring to his plans on Iran, as Tehran continued the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial economic waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

To say that the Government of Pakistan, alongside the nation, are ecstatic to be hosting the historic Islamabad Talks between the US and Iran, would be an understatement. As an immediate neighbour to Iran, but also a country that aims to strengthen its ties with the powerful US, Pakistan grabbed the opportunity to do what many nations couldn’t at a time when peace is the only natural solution to what could have been a dangerous moment in the history of global wars.

To understand how these talks between Iran and the US would shape up and what their future would be, with Pakistan as the host, Geo.tv spoke with former diplomats and experts for their analyses of this extraordinary moment.

‘Pakistan helped avert a catastrophe’

Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, a former federal minister and an expert on Pakistan’s foreign affairs and ties with Iran, said he views Pakistan’s role as one that averted a catastrophe, no matter what the outcome of the talks would be.

“Pakistan helped avert a catastrophe and bring warring parties to the conference table in Islamabad, which is a vote of confidence in [our country] by both sides.,” he said.

The former minister added that it is due to Pakistan that both the US and Iran are showing an interest in talking to each other, “rather than shooting at each other”.

Commenting on whether he viewed this moment to be changing regional and global geopolitics, Syed said that the US-Iran negotiations, brokered and hosted by Pakistan, are the most significant peace talks since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran for three reasons.

“First, they come in the context of a devastating regional war, with global implications, which was threatening to escalate.

Second, the talks are also about forging a durable peace, including the lifting of decades-old US sanctions against Iran. Third, the US-Israeli War has already reshaped the Gulf and Middle East with new realities, especially the emergence of major Muslim middle powers like Pakistan and Turkiye,” he added.

The former minister, when speaking about Pakistan’s political and economic future, in light of the talks, said that since all eyes are on Pakistan with Islamabad at the center stage of global diplomacy, there’s a new found respect for Pakistan’s prowess and skills, both in defence and diplomacy and Pakistan’s acceptability as a credible interlocutor.

“So, Pakistan’s clout, respect and impact in the broader Muslim World as well as the West and Global South will increase immensely.”

‘We should keep our fingers crossed’

Ex-ambassador Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s former envoy to Iran and the United Arab Emirates, sharing his views on the significant talks, said that Pakistan, through its astute diplomacy stopped the war between the US and Iran, and is now playing a mediation role, so “there should be hope and we should keep our fingers crossed” with regards to how these talks will shape up.

“The very fact that these talks have started is a good and positive sign. The rest depends on the talks, how the agenda is set and what it is and how the relevant parties proceed. We’ll find out as the talks move ahead,” he maintained.

The former diplomat stated that Pakistan’s position as a mediator in these talks is crucial as the country is “concerned party”.

“We are immediate neighbours to Iran, so if peace is impacted in our neighbourhood, it also disturbs us,” he said.

Former ambassasor Durrani added that it is also important to note what Pakistan is facing in terms of the economic crisis, the hike in oil prices, the levels of inflation impacting employment.

“This is not good for Pakistan in the economic and security perspective,” he said.

He also pointed towards the regional impact of the US-Iran conflict that affected Gulf countries in the Middle East.

“There is massive destruction in Gulf States as well as in Iran. It is a very difficult situation within the security paradigm. It is very important to control it and resolve it through dialogue,” said the ex-ambassador.

Sharing his views on whether there will be any regional and global geopolitical changes in sight as a result of these talks, the ex-envoy said it depends on what issues surface next.

“If the talks, in the present situation, are successful, then sanctions on Iran would be lifted. The Strait of Hormuz would be opened, and there would be further dialogue on that among the parties and stakeholders.

We’ll also have to see how Iran’s economic ties will shape up in terms of its frozen assets. This would be a positive sign. Then Iran’s assurances on the nuclear issue would also play a role in the region,” he opined.

Durrani also mentioned that it is also crucial to look at Israel’s position in these circumstances. “It is also important that Israel, an undeclared nuclear-weapon state, has to be brought within the paradigm, particularly in the context of its potential use of these weapons.”

‘A fruitful effort’

Dr Farhan Hanif Siddiqi, an international relations and political scholar who currently teaches at the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi, looks at the efforts of Pakistan as “fruitful”, terming Islamabad’s siginifcant diplomatic role in bringing “active hostilities and an active war toward temporary hold” as “unprecedented”.

“Pakistan has never played this kind of a role in bringing hostilities between two adversaries to an end. It’s a fruitful effort, but our expectations from the meeting today should be more moderate because do not expect that there’ll be a significant advancement on the key positional issues, which both sides have such as Iranian nuclear weapons, the Strait of Hormuz, stopping Israel from attacking Iran and Lebanon in the future, and of course, the issue of Iranian financial compensation, reparations, and the end to sanctions that they’ve been demanding,” he said.

Terming the expectations on the talks to be minimalist but profound, Dr Siddiqui said it would be more significant if Iran and the US can engage in direct negotiations.

“A significant positive demonstration effect of the negotiations would be that Iran and the US have talked directly with each other,” he said.

Dr Siddiqui added that the regional and global geopolitics have already changed with Iran emerging as a “major regional power”.

“It has stood up to the US. It now has the Strait of Hormuz under its control, it’s now permanent. The Americans have not been able to open it. They’ve pleaded to the Europeans even Japan to help them, which tells you again, the limitations of what the Americans can actually achieve and in that sense, Iran has stood up to American power,” he said.

The academic maintained that the developments also point towards how the impression of power has been undermined and transformed in the context of how states with nuclear weapons and power can help super powers achieve their military objectives.

“It also tells you that the world is clearly very interdependent now. You have to factor in geoeconomics as well, besides geopolitics, because this war has really impacted the international political economy,” said Dr Siddiqui.

The scholar added that the domestic fuel prices in many states of the world have gone up, including the US itself. “We now live in a very economically integrated, interdependent world and any invasion or wars have a very detrimental impact on the world economy.”

‘Pakistan will emerge as a big winner’

Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi, Pakistan’s former envoy to China, termed Pakistan a “big winner” amidst the Islamabad Talks between the US and Iran, commenting on how the talks will impact Pakistan’s political and economic future in the region.

“It is the first time since May last year that Pakistan is being looked at as Pakistan itself and due to its strengths, rather than through the interests or the prism of Afghanistan or India. Pakistan had already emerged, and now it has strengthened its position as the net stabilisation force in the region,” she said.

The former diplomat maintained that the myths about India being the net security provider and the contractor of the region have completely faded away.

“I see a lot of direct and indirect investments coming into Pakistan, too, which can then put our economy back on track. There is nothing but only good for Pakistan that might emerge out of this,” Hashmi said.

Commenting on whether the talks will be successful, the ex-envoy said that it’s a “very big day for Pakistan”, as Islamabad’s efforts were successful, leading both warring nations to arrive in the capital to discuss peace.

“For me, it is like turning over a new page in our history, and I’m confident that this has already raised the stature of Pakistan many notches. From here, it’ll only become stronger and stronger.”