Bitcoin is on track to hit the $100,000 price milestone by the end of the year after President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, according to analysts. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said a price rise to $100,000 — which would imply 33% upside — “is possible now,” as Trump’s presidential win and the Republicans’ new majority in the Senate is likely to make it easier to push through a “relaxed anticipated regulatory framework.” Bitcoin at $100,000 “doesn’t sound so unreasonable” given it equates to “just 10% of gold’s market share,” Butterfill told CNBC in emailed comments. Trump, who on Wednesday beat Vice President Kamala Harris to win the 2024 U.S. election, had promised several pro-cryptocurrency initiatives in the months leading up to the vote. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin One pledge was to fire Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, who has taken more than 100 actions against crypto firms during his tenure at the helm of the agency. The SEC has sued the likes of crypto exchanges Coinbase and Binance, and blockchain firm Ripple, which is closely associated with the cryptocurrency XRP, accusing the firms of violating securities laws. Crypto-friendly regulation expected Another promise Trump made was to create a bitcoin reserve holding digital currency the U.S. federal government has amassed from seizing assets from financial criminals. He also committed to boosting the U.S. bitcoin mining sector, saying he wants all remaining bitcoin in the world to be mined in America. CoinShares’ Butterfill said that the primary catalysts he sees for bitcoin going forward are a change in leadership at the SEC, crypto-friendly regulation, and further adoption from major corporates. Another thing that could trigger a leg higher is the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates Thursday, he added. Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at crypto exchange Bitfinex, said that although it’s difficult to predict bitcoin prices, a target of $100,000 in a few months “doesn’t seem too far fetched.” “We expect bitcoin to have limited downside now given the bullish impetus, plus fact that we avoided a recession — which at one point looked highly plausible,” Kooner told CNBC via email. BTC to hit $100K by Trump’s inauguration A $100,000 bitcoin price is likely to be reached by the time Trump is inaugurated president on Jan. 20, 2025, according to Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at crypto custodian Copper.co. “For Bitcoin, it’s worth remembering that Trump oversaw not one but two all-time high cycles during his 2016-2020 presidency,” Aboualfa said in written commentary following news of Trump’s election win. However, he added the caveat that those gains “came against a backdrop of a weakening dollar, unlike the stronger dollar environment today.” Still, with bitcoin exchange-traded funds currently holding roughly 1.1 million bitcoins, momentum is likely to be positive in the coming months, Aboualfa added. Other catalysts Bitfinex’s Kooner added that other catalysts for positive price momentum in bitcoin will include the “long tail” of bitcoin’s so-called “halving” event in April coming through and impacting supply. The bitcoin halving is a technical event in the bitcoin blockchain that happens once every four years. It cuts in half the supply of bitcoin issued to miners who successfully produce new bitcoins. Ongoing expectations of a decline in interest rates, avoidance of recession, and a robust labor market in the U.S. are also likely to “spur greater adoption and more confidence of the future of bitcoin and its usage in the economy,” Kooner told CNBC.
