NEW DELHI: Solar scientists have revised their predictions for the current solar cycle, acknowledging that they were significantly off-target. The latest forecasts indicate that we are rapidly approaching an explosive peak in solar activity, which is set to arrive earlier and with greater intensity than initially predicted, reported Live Science.
The sun undergoes a cyclic pattern of solar activity, shifting between periods of calm known as a solar minimum and peaks of heightened activity called the solar maximum.During solar maximum,dark sunspots cover the sun, and it frequently emits powerful solar storms. The sun then returns to a period of tranquillity.
Solar Cycle 25, the sun’s current cycle, officially commenced in early 2019. The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), comprising experts from NOAA and NASA, initially projected that Solar Cycle 25 would likely peak in 2025. This prediction suggested that the cycle would be relatively subdued compared to average cycles, similar to its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
However, other solar experts soon noticed that the sun’s behaviour was not aligning with the SWPC’s forecasts.
Earlier this year, it was reported that solar activity was increasing at a faster rate than expected, and numerous experts anticipated that the solar maximum would likely arrive before the end of 2024.
On October 25, the SWPC issued a “revised prediction” for Solar Cycle 25, acknowledging that their initial estimates were no longer reliable. The updated forecast indicates that solar activity will surge more quickly and reach a higher level than originally anticipated. Solar maximum is now expected to commence between January and October of the following year.
Several indicators throughout this year have signalled the earlier and more active arrival of the solar maximum, including a 20-year peak in sunspot activity, powerful X-class solar flares, extensive aurora displays at lower latitudes, rising temperatures in the upper atmosphere, the presence of airglow streaks, and the disappearance of noctilucent clouds.
The reasons behind the inaccurate predictions by SWPC and the delay in updating the forecasts remain unclear, despite warning signs that have been evident for years. In 2020, a group of scientists led by solar physicist Scott McIntosh predicted a more active and earlier solar maximum using historic sunspot and magnetic field data.
An intensified solar peak can potentially disrupt Earth’s systems, causing radio blackouts, power infrastructure damage, radiation risks for airline passengers and astronauts, and satellite failures, including GPS and internet satellites.
To avoid further confusion, SWPC will transition to a more flexible forecast system, updated monthly, for the remainder of Solar Cycle 25.
“We expect that our new experimental forecast will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, it will be continuously updated on a monthly basis as new sunspot observations become available,” Mark Miesch, a solar physicist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and lead researcher at SWPC, said in the statement, as per Live Science.
“It’s a pretty significant change,” he added.
The sun undergoes a cyclic pattern of solar activity, shifting between periods of calm known as a solar minimum and peaks of heightened activity called the solar maximum.During solar maximum,dark sunspots cover the sun, and it frequently emits powerful solar storms. The sun then returns to a period of tranquillity.
Solar Cycle 25, the sun’s current cycle, officially commenced in early 2019. The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), comprising experts from NOAA and NASA, initially projected that Solar Cycle 25 would likely peak in 2025. This prediction suggested that the cycle would be relatively subdued compared to average cycles, similar to its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
However, other solar experts soon noticed that the sun’s behaviour was not aligning with the SWPC’s forecasts.
Earlier this year, it was reported that solar activity was increasing at a faster rate than expected, and numerous experts anticipated that the solar maximum would likely arrive before the end of 2024.
On October 25, the SWPC issued a “revised prediction” for Solar Cycle 25, acknowledging that their initial estimates were no longer reliable. The updated forecast indicates that solar activity will surge more quickly and reach a higher level than originally anticipated. Solar maximum is now expected to commence between January and October of the following year.
Several indicators throughout this year have signalled the earlier and more active arrival of the solar maximum, including a 20-year peak in sunspot activity, powerful X-class solar flares, extensive aurora displays at lower latitudes, rising temperatures in the upper atmosphere, the presence of airglow streaks, and the disappearance of noctilucent clouds.
The reasons behind the inaccurate predictions by SWPC and the delay in updating the forecasts remain unclear, despite warning signs that have been evident for years. In 2020, a group of scientists led by solar physicist Scott McIntosh predicted a more active and earlier solar maximum using historic sunspot and magnetic field data.
An intensified solar peak can potentially disrupt Earth’s systems, causing radio blackouts, power infrastructure damage, radiation risks for airline passengers and astronauts, and satellite failures, including GPS and internet satellites.
To avoid further confusion, SWPC will transition to a more flexible forecast system, updated monthly, for the remainder of Solar Cycle 25.
“We expect that our new experimental forecast will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, it will be continuously updated on a monthly basis as new sunspot observations become available,” Mark Miesch, a solar physicist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and lead researcher at SWPC, said in the statement, as per Live Science.
“It’s a pretty significant change,” he added.
